Economy

The Census Bureau's July 2026 retail sales report was scheduled for 8:30 a.m. EDT on August 14, but had not been published at the time of research. The most recent available benchmark is June's $768.6 billion in retail and food-services sales, a 0.2% monthly gain and 6.7% year-over-year increase. The July figures, once released, will feed into BEA estimates of personal consumption expenditures and inform Federal Reserve discussions ahead of a September policy decision, with markets currently pricing in no rate change.

The U.S. Census Bureau has not published its June 2026 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report, with release dates for January through October 2026 listed as 'TBA' following a lapse in federal funding. The most recent available data, from May 2026, shows total inventories of $2,736.2 billion and an aggregate inventory-to-sales ratio of 1.28, down from 1.30 in April and 1.39 a year earlier. The June figures, once released, will feed into the BEA's second estimate of Q2 2026 GDP, scheduled for August 26, after the advance estimate reported a 1.5 percent annualized growth rate with inventory investment acting as a partial drag.

The University of Michigan's preliminary August 2026 Surveys of Consumers report publishes today, the first sentiment reading since July payrolls fell by 23,000 and prior months were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. The July final sentiment index stood at 55.2, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.2% and long-run expectations at 3.3%. The Federal Reserve monitors both short- and long-run measures from this survey, with longer-term figures considered a gauge of price-stability credibility.

The Philadelphia Fed's Q3 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters is scheduled for release on August 14, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. EDT, with Q3 GDP, unemployment, inflation, and recession-probability figures not yet available. The most recent Q2 2026 survey, drawn from 33 forecasters, showed headline CPI running at a 6.0 percent annual rate and a 25.1 percent probability of GDP contraction in Q3. July data arriving ahead of the release showed nonfarm payrolls falling 23,000 and 12-month CPI at 3.4 percent, providing fresh context for how forecasters may have revised their outlooks.