Geopolitics

Ukraine proposed a mutual halt to attacks on civilian Black Sea targets on August 13; Russia rejected it the following day, calling it a half-measure. Commercial shipping to Ukraine's Black Sea ports has been effectively suspended since late July, with Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd among carriers that halted operations. The FAO reported global wheat prices rose 5.8% in July and now sit 9.9% above year-earlier levels, citing Black Sea export disruptions as a contributing factor.

The U.S. Senate passed H.R. 5334 on August 7, 2026, authorizing duties up to 500 percent on Russian goods and up to 100 percent on goods from countries that continue buying Russian oil or gas, while extending the Iran Sanctions Act through 2031. The bill reached the House on August 10, but no House floor vote has been scheduled, and the chamber is in recess until August 31. Critics raised concerns during Senate debate that the tariff provisions grant the executive branch broad new authority, though an amendment to strip those provisions was rejected 32-64.