Economy

Three presidential proclamations signed July 20 under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 set a hard deadline of 12:01 a.m. Eastern time on August 19, 2026, for additional 50% duties on Canadian motor vehicles, dairy, and alcohol, among other goods. A negotiated understanding alone would not legally stay the tariffs; only an explicit presidential or other authorized action published before that time can prevent collection by U.S. Customs and Border Protection. As of August 16, talks between the two countries are ongoing but no concluded agreement, extension, or interim relief instrument has been officially announced.

The New York Federal Reserve will publish its August Empire State Manufacturing Survey on Monday, August 17, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report will be measured against July's headline general business conditions index of 15.6, which reflected a ten-point rise driven by strong gains in new orders and shipments. The survey covers roughly 200 New York State manufacturing executives and has historically shown predictive value for U.S. production and employment trends, though August data were not public at the time of this writing.

The New York Fed is scheduled to release its July 2026 SCE Labor Market Survey results on August 17, updating household-reported measures of job-search activity, employer transitions, reservation wages, and job-loss expectations. The most recent March data showed reservation wages at a series high of $84,762, job-search activity falling to 22.5%, and the expected likelihood of moving to a new employer at its lowest point since 2021. The July release will provide a complementary read on worker sentiment alongside the official BLS July employment report, which showed nonfarm payrolls down 23,000 and downward revisions totaling 103,000 jobs for May and June.

Japan's Economic and Social Research Institute will publish its first preliminary April-June 2026 GDP figure on August 17, 2026, at 8:50 a.m. JST, with a second preliminary estimate to follow on September 8. The most recent benchmark is Q1 2026 real growth of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, or 1.8% annualized. The Bank of Japan, which held its overnight call rate target at approximately 1.0% as of July 31, has described GDP data as one of several inputs into future rate decisions rather than a standalone trigger.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model revised its Q3 2026 real GDP growth estimate down to 4.3% on August 14, from 5.8% on August 6, following Census Bureau data showing July retail and food-services sales fell 0.6% from June to $763.6 billion. The single-day revision from August 13 to August 14 was driven primarily by a drop in the personal consumption expenditures growth nowcast from 3.1% to 2.5% and a small decline in the private inventories contribution. The BEA's official Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate is scheduled for October 29; the GDPNow figure is a mechanical data tracker, not an official forecast.

The New York Fed's July Business Leaders Survey recorded its first service-sector growth in nearly two years, with the headline activity index jumping 18.8 points to 8.7. Input prices remained elevated at 66.7, while the six-month business activity outlook climbed to 23.2. The August update covering the same tri-state service sector is scheduled for release Tuesday, August 18, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The U.S. Census Bureau and HUD will publish July 2026 New Residential Construction figures on August 18 at 8:30 a.m. EDT, covering permits, starts, and completions at national and regional levels. The most recent data point, June 2026, showed total starts at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,427,000 units, up 19.0% from May, while total permits fell 3.0% to 1,367,000. Revised building permit data extending to states, metro areas, and counties will follow in a separate release on August 25.

The Federal Reserve will publish its G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report for July on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, at 9:15 a.m. The report will cover output and utilization rates across manufacturing, mining, and utilities, with July figures not yet available as of August 16. The most recent release, covering June, showed total industrial production up 0.1 percent for the month and 1.1 percent year-over-year, with total capacity utilization at 76.1 percent, 3.3 percentage points below the long-run average.