Japan Five-Year JGB Yield Hits Record 2.135% as September BOJ Hike Odds Reach 80%
Japan's two-year government bond yield rose to 1.650% on August 14, 2026, its highest since May 1995, while the five-year yield reached a record 2.135% in its fifth consecutive session of gains. Markets priced an approximately 80% probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike at the September 17–18 meeting, a figure derived from market pricing rather than any BOJ commitment. BOJ Board meeting summaries from July noted individual members flagging upside inflation risks and the possibility of a faster tightening pace, though no policy decision has been made.