Economy

Canada's headline inflation reached 3.0% year over year in July, pushed above the Bank of Canada's 1–3% control range ceiling by a 25.7% surge in gasoline prices and a 15.2% jump in travel tour costs tied to World Cup demand. Underlying core measures told a different story: CPI-trim held at 1.9% and CPI-median edged up to 2.0%, both near the Bank's 2% target for a third consecutive month. Because the headline overshoot is attributed to external energy and one-off event factors rather than domestic price pressure, the core readings argue against a change to the Bank of Canada's policy rate.

The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August 2026 recorded a general business conditions index of 20.6, its highest level in more than four years and nearly double the economist consensus of 10.6. Activity indicators including delivery times and unfilled orders also reached four-year highs, while the prices-paid index re-accelerated to 58.6 after a brief July dip, with 59.4% of respondents reporting higher input costs. Firms expect conditions to strengthen further over the next six months, with anticipated employment rising sharply and future prices-paid holding elevated at 57.7.

Brazil's IBC-Br economic activity index rose just 0.2% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to Q1, a sharp deceleration from the 1.2% gain recorded in the first quarter. A 0.6% monthly drop in June, driven by a 1.4% fall in industry and a 0.5% decline in services, pulled down the quarterly result even as agriculture posted a 1.0% monthly gain. The softening coincides with a real policy rate near 14% and inflation still above the central bank's 3.0% target, with official Q2 GDP figures from IBGE scheduled for September 1.

Israel's preliminary Q2 2026 GDP estimate showed a 15.4% annualized rebound following a Q1 contraction tied to the Iran war, driven largely by government spending, exports, and Israeli-owned production located abroad. When overseas production from defense, pharmaceutical, and hardware firms is stripped out, H1 2026 growth versus H2 2025 falls from 3.2% to roughly 1%, indicating the domestic economy is close to stagnation. Private consumption also declined 0.4% over the same half-year comparison, underscoring the gap between the headline figure and underlying economic conditions.

Malaysia's economy expanded 6.0% year-on-year in Q2 2026, beating the 5.8% consensus median and rebounding from a near-flat quarter-on-quarter result in Q1. Electrical and electronics exports reached a record RM467.9 billion in the first half of the year, up 42.5%, while mining and quarrying grew 10.2% on an LNG rebound. Bank Negara Malaysia kept its full-year 2026 growth forecast at approximately 5.0%, placing Malaysia second only to Vietnam among major ASEAN economies for the quarter.

Bangladesh's parliament approved a Tk 9.38 lakh crore ($77 billion) budget on June 30, 2026, the first full-year spending plan under a BNP-led government since FY2006-07. The budget targets 6.5% GDP growth and includes the country's largest-ever development programme at Tk 3 lakh crore, alongside tax incentives designed to shift the economy toward foreign direct investment. A significant credibility test remains: IMF staff project only 3.5% growth for the same fiscal year, a gap that will need to be resolved as Bangladesh negotiates a new IMF financial arrangement.