Economy

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index edged up to –0.02 in June from –0.19 in May, signaling continued below-trend growth but an improvement across most of its four indicator categories. The three-month moving average also rose to –0.05, sitting well above the –0.70 threshold historically associated with economic contraction. The July reading, covering 85 monthly indicators, is scheduled for release on August 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET and will show whether that modest recovery held.

The Census Bureau and HUD will publish July 2026 new single-family home sales figures on August 25, covering the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate, inventory, months of supply, and median and average prices. The most recent available data, from June, showed a 628,000 annualized sales rate alongside a median price of $398,300 and 9.3 months of supply, all carrying wide published uncertainty margins. The July report will also show whether signed-contract demand held steady or declined alongside July's 9.9% drop in single-family housing starts to 808,000 units.

Treasury data show gross federal debt hit $40,047,425,768,420.22 on August 18, 2026, comprising $32.3 trillion held by the public and $7.8 trillion in intragovernmental holdings. The Congressional Budget Office projects net interest costs will reach $1.0 trillion in 2026 and double to $2.1 trillion by 2036, while debt held by the public is forecast to climb from 101% of GDP to 120% over the same period. The $40 trillion figure is a data milestone with no automatic policy or statutory consequence under current debt-limit rules.