Economy

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that both headline and core PCE price indexes rose 0.2 percent in July 2026, putting year-over-year rates at 3.7 percent and 3.3 percent respectively. Despite a 0.4 percent gain in nominal personal income, real consumer spending was flat for the month, meaning income growth did not translate into actual spending gains after accounting for inflation. The personal saving rate stood at 3.0 percent of disposable personal income.

The Bank of Korea lifted its Base Rate by 25 basis points to 3.00% on August 27, 2026, its first back-to-back increase in over three years, with six of seven board members in support. The decision was driven by above-target inflation, accelerating Seoul housing prices, and faster household loan growth, alongside an upgraded 2026 GDP forecast of 3.3%, revised up from May's 2.6% projection on the strength of semiconductor exports. Board members' conditional six-month projections center on 3.25%, though the governor characterized the path forward as gradual and data-dependent.

In an August 27, 2026 speech, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino argued that raising rates in a timely manner would prevent inflation from accelerating and avoid the need for abrupt future hikes, while noting that underlying inflation is approaching and could exceed the 2 percent target. Despite being asked directly about timing, Himino gave no specific date, meeting, or timetable for the next increase. The BOJ's policy rate has held at around 1.0 percent since June 16, 2026, with the next scheduled meeting set for September 17-18.

Germany's NIM consumer climate index rose 2.8 points to −26.6 for September, surpassing the Reuters analyst poll consensus of −29.6 by 3.0 points. The improvement was driven primarily by a 16.2-point jump in income expectations, which turned positive at 1.7, while willingness to buy remained virtually unchanged at −9.8. The headline index remains below zero, which in NIM's framework signals an anticipated decline in private consumption relative to a year earlier, not a measured change in actual spending.

The Census Bureau's Advance Economic Indicators Report for July 2026 is due this morning, covering the goods trade deficit, exports, imports, and wholesale and retail inventory levels. The June baseline showed a $101.5 billion goods deficit, wholesale inventories of $945.9 billion, and retail inventories of $831.3 billion. Because the advance report provides the only available third-month trade and inventory data before the full FT-900 arrives September 3, the BEA uses it directly in constructing the advance Q3 GDP estimate.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its Worker Displacement Survey results for 2023–2025 on August 27, 2026, at 10 a.m. ET, covering total job losses, industry and occupation breakdowns, and reemployment outcomes. The most recent comparable data, from the 2021–2023 survey, found 6.3 million total displaced workers and a 65.7 percent reemployment rate for long-tenured workers. The new figures are not yet available, and prior survey results should not be treated as substitutes for the upcoming release.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish its preliminary benchmark revision to March 2026 nonfarm payroll employment this morning, August 28, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. ET, alongside first-quarter 2026 QCEW data. The revision compares sample-based CES estimates against comprehensive unemployment-insurance tax records, and any adjustment announced today will not alter official employment figures until the final benchmark is applied in February 2027. The 2024 precedent, a downward revision of 818,000 jobs, illustrates that these preliminary figures can be material, though the direction and size of the 2026 adjustment are unknown until today's release.