Personal Finance

For the week ended August 21, 2026, mortgage applications fell 1.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the refinance index dropping 2% week over week and sitting 17% below the same period a year earlier, as the MBA's 30-year conforming rate hit a three-week high of 6.78%. At that rate, borrowers holding mortgages originated at 3% or 5% would see monthly payments rise by roughly $790 or $393 respectively on a $345,120 loan balance, eliminating any break-even case for refinancing. Freddie Mac's most recent posted benchmark, from August 20, stood at 6.65%, with its August 27 reading due at noon Eastern on Thursday.

With only one of three required CPI-W readings in hand, AARP, The Senior Citizens League, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget have issued 2027 Social Security COLA estimates ranging from 3.2% to 3.6%, translating to roughly $66 to $75 more per month for the average retired worker. The final adjustment depends on August and September 2026 inflation data, due September 11 and October 14 respectively. SSA has confirmed only that an announcement will come in October 2026, not that it will fall on October 14.

CMS announced on July 28, 2026, that it will end the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration after CY 2026, removing a subsidy that had reduced the base beneficiary premium by $10 and capped annual premium increases at $50 for stand-alone prescription drug plan enrollees. The 2027 national base beneficiary premium is set at $41.33, a $2.34 increase from 2026, though individual plan premiums will not be finalized until mid-to-late September. With Medicare Open Enrollment beginning October 15, the 24.9 million stand-alone PDP enrollees will need to compare 2027 plan offerings once the September landscape release is available, as plan-level premium changes remain unresolved.

The Department of Labor's August 20 release recorded 206,000 seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 15, down 6,000 from a revised prior week, with continuing claims at 1,799,000. The August 27 release, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, will add a new weekly figure and any revision to that 206,000 count. Analysts and the Dallas Fed caution that a single week's number is not a reliable stress signal; sustained rises in the four-week moving average and continuing claims are the more meaningful indicators to watch.

On July 17, 2026, the Ninth Circuit affirmed the denial of the Education Department's request to reopen the Sweet v. McMahon settlement, leaving relief deadlines intact for a post-class group of roughly 207,000 borrowers with some discharge processing dates extending to March 2027. The ruling did not resolve a separate vested-right argument, is nonprecedential, and comes alongside a June 2026 plaintiffs' breach notice alleging more than 800 borrowers are still waiting for discharges or refunds. Borrowers receiving discharges in 2026 or 2027 also face unresolved federal tax questions, as current IRS guidance uses 'may be taxable' language without a definitive ruling covering all Sweet settlements.