Economy

India's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously on August 5, 2026, to keep the repo rate at 5.25% and retain a neutral stance, citing unclear inflation trends, monsoon uncertainty, and global trade risks as reasons to wait before acting. The committee projects FY27 GDP growth at 6.7% and CPI inflation at 5.0%, with inflation expected to peak at 5.9% in Q3 before easing. Governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated the RBI requires greater clarity on inflation's path and composition before any rate adjustment will be considered, with the next decision due October 5–7, 2026.

Banco de México is scheduled to announce its August 6 monetary policy decision at 1:00 p.m. CST, but as of this writing no official result has been published. At its June 25 meeting, the Governing Board unanimously held the overnight interbank rate at 6.50%, citing headline inflation that had fallen to 3.55% and a forecast for convergence to target by Q2 2027. A Reuters survey of 28 analysts found a median expectation of no change through year-end, with one dissenting analyst forecasting a 25-basis-point cut.

The August 2026 Employment Situation report, due September 4, arrives eleven days before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, making it the last scheduled monthly jobs data the Federal Reserve will receive before its rate decision. The July report, releasing Friday, still enters the Fed's information set and will be revised in the September 4 release alongside August data. June's baseline shows 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added, a 4.2 percent unemployment rate, and a labor-force participation rate that has declined 0.8 percentage points over the past year to 61.5 percent.