GeoPolitics

CENTCOM struck over 300 Iranian military targets across three consecutive nights ending July 12, including the first combat use of one-way attack aerial and sea drones by US forces. Iran responded by firing missiles and drones at US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, and Oman simultaneously, while commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz sits at roughly 12% of normal volume due to Iranian harassment, a US naval blockade on Iranian-flagged vessels, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. The April ceasefire is functionally void, no diplomatic channel is active, and Iran has stated any settlement must guarantee its control over the strait, a condition Washington has not accepted.

The 2026 NATO Ankara Summit produced a EUR 70 billion military support package for Ukraine, but approximately EUR 28.3 billion of that total is an EU loan agreed before the summit rather than new money. The summit's most concrete deliverable was a NATO agency purchase of 900 Patriot interceptors, while accession language weakened from 2024's 'irreversible path' to a non-committal Article 10 reference. Understanding the gap between the headline figure and actual new commitments matters for assessing how much allied support for Ukraine has genuinely expanded.