Economy

The Federal Reserve's July 15, 2026 Beige Book reports eleven of twelve Districts growing at a slight to moderate pace, with employment essentially flat, wages rising modestly to moderately, and prices up at a moderate overall pace driven by tariff and fuel costs. Consumer trade-down behavior widened across income levels, and skilled-trade labor shortages intensified as data-center construction competed with manufacturing and energy sectors for electricians and technicians. The report hands the FOMC an anecdotal baseline consistent with holding rates, though tariff-driven input cost pressure and compressed business margins introduce a marginal stagflationary signal ahead of the July 28–29 policy meeting.

The July 16 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey recorded the 30-year fixed rate at 6.55 percent, up 6 basis points from the prior week, driven by a mortgage-Treasury spread near 200 basis points against a 10-year yield of roughly 4.57 percent rather than a sharp move in Treasuries themselves. Despite the nominal rate climbing back toward last summer's peak, Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater and Realtor.com both note that rising for-sale inventory and income growth outpacing payment increases have left affordability modestly better than during the August 2025 high. For borrowers, a $400,000 30-year loan at 6.55 percent now costs approximately $157 more per month than it did at the January 2026 rate of 6.07 percent, keeping refinance activity subdued for the large cohort holding sub-4 percent pandemic-era mortgages.