Intelligence Brief

Central Command has now completed 12 consecutive nights of strikes against Iran, with the latest package targeting maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage, and air-defense assets. Separately, Trump has twice threatened to strike Pickaxe Mountain, an underground complex near Natanz, though the Institute for Science and International Security assessed through July 2026 that the site is not yet operational. Whether Iran has moved enriched uranium or centrifuges there remains unverified.

Lockheed Martin and RTX are scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 23 before trading begins, with analyst estimates of $19.35 billion in revenue for Lockheed and $22.88 billion for RTX. Key items to watch include F-35 delivery progress after Q1 shipments fell to 32 aircraft from 47, and whether Raytheon's defense margins continue their upward trend from 10.7% to 12.2% year over year. Both companies may also update full-year guidance, with RTX having already raised its adjusted-sales outlook to $92.5–$93.5 billion following a strong first quarter.

A March 2026 joint proposal from the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC would reduce capital requirements for the largest US banks by a net 4.8% when Basel III revisions, G-SIB surcharge updates, and stress-test changes are combined. The package replaces two existing risk-based calculations with a unified approach covering credit, operational, market, and credit-valuation-adjustment risk. Public comments are due June 18, 2026, with no final rule date yet announced.