Economy

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to announce its rate decision, updated Monetary Policy Report, and hold a press conference on July 30, with all 70 economists surveyed on July 24 expecting the rate to remain at 3.75%. The June 18 vote was 7–2 to hold, with dissenters Megan Greene and Huw Pill preferring a quarter-point increase citing energy price volatility and second-round inflation risks. Since then, CPI has eased to 2.6% but services inflation remains at 3.6%, and retail sales volumes rose 1.0% in June, meaning the vote split and the MPC's assessment of wage growth and services prices may matter as much as the headline decision.

The Bank of Russia made a second consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut on July 24, bringing its key rate to 14%, despite raising its full-year inflation forecast to 6%–7% and citing fuel supply disruptions as a primary driver of price pressure. The bank simultaneously downgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0%–1%, pointing to declining business expectations and temporary production capacity contractions. The next rate decision on September 11 will depend on whether fuel markets stabilize and how forthcoming government budget projections affect the fiscal deficit outlook.