Economy

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its advance Q2 2026 GDP estimate alongside June Personal Income and Outlays data on July 30 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Pre-release tracking models place annualized Q2 growth between 1.7% and 2.1%, while May's most recent official PCE readings showed headline inflation at 4.1% annually, 2.1 percentage points above the FOMC's 2% target. The reports will allow analysts to determine whether Q2 growth was driven by household consumption or more volatile inventory and trade movements, and whether the inflation gap narrowed in June.

The FOMC enters its July 28–29 meeting with rates unchanged since June, when a unanimous 12–0 vote held the target range at 3.50%–3.75% amid elevated inflation and solid economic activity. Because no new economic projections accompany this meeting, the policy statement's exact wording on inflation and employment, the vote count, and Chair Warsh's press conference conditions for future action will carry the primary signaling weight. Futures markets currently price roughly a two-thirds chance of no change and one-third chance of a quarter-point increase, figures that can shift materially before Wednesday's 2:00 p.m. ET announcement.