Economy

June 2026 durable goods data showed core capital goods orders rising 0.3%, topping the 0.2% economist consensus, while shipments posted their largest gain since January at 0.5%. These figures feed directly into the BEA's equipment investment calculations, meaning the stronger-than-expected readings will likely lift the Q2 GDP estimate released Wednesday. Analysts attributed part of the growth to continued business spending on artificial intelligence technologies.

New Section 301 duties of 10 or 12.5 percent took effect July 24, 2026, targeting 60 trading partners over forced labor enforcement failures, but structural carve-outs for USMCA goods, Section 232 metals, and 471 product categories meaningfully narrow actual import value covered. USTR Greer characterized the economic impact as limited four days after implementation, a framing consistent with the exemptions built into the action. The administration has signaled further Section 301 moves are forthcoming, including a pending investigation into excess manufacturing capacity and a 25 percent tariff on Brazilian goods already in effect.

The U.S. Census Bureau's June 2026 Advance Economic Indicators report, released July 28 at 8:30 a.m. EDT, provides goods trade balance and wholesale and retail inventory figures that feed directly into the BEA's advance Q2 GDP estimate due July 30. The most recent comparable data, from May, showed a goods trade deficit of $105.8 billion, wholesale inventories of $944.0 billion, and retail inventories of $832.2 billion. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model tracked Q2 real GDP growth at 1.6 percent as of July 27, with inventory investment contributing approximately -0.15 percentage points, figures that will update once today's June data are incorporated.

The Conference Board releases its July Consumer Confidence Index today at 10 AM ET, the first reading since new Section 301 tariffs on 60 economies took effect July 24. June's headline reading of 91.2 missed forecasts by 3.2 points, the Expectations Index has stayed below the 80 recession-signal threshold for 17 consecutive months, and the share of respondents calling jobs 'hard to get' hit a 5½-year high of 22.5%. Because the July survey window likely closed just before or at the tariff effective date, today's write-in responses will offer the earliest attitudinal evidence of how consumers are processing the new duties, ahead of PCE data due July 30.