Atlanta Fed Q2 2026 GDP Nowcast Falls to 1.3% After Wholesale Inventory Revision
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model lowered its Q2 2026 real GDP growth estimate from 1.4% to 1.3% on July 8, 2026, driven by the Census Bureau's downward revision of May wholesale inventories from +0.3% to +0.1%. The 1.3% reading sits well below the New York Fed Staff Nowcast of 2.74% and the Philadelphia Fed's professional forecaster consensus of 2.2%, with net exports accounting for the largest single drag at -1.31 percentage points. The estimate arrives alongside a May PCE inflation reading of 4.1% year-over-year and renewed oil price increases after the U.S. declared its Iran memorandum of understanding void, conditions the Federal Reserve has explicitly described as a stagflationary bind.