Economy

The FOMC opens its September 15–16 meeting with market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike near 85%, up from below 50% a month ago, driven by an inflation-focused Jackson Hole speech from Chair Warsh and an August CPI report showing energy prices up 16.3% year-over-year. Against that, a September 9 Reuters poll found most economists still expect the federal funds rate to hold at 3.50%–3.75%, and July payrolls fell by 23,000 with prior months revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. The September 16 decision and new Summary of Economic Projections will resolve a concrete split between economist consensus and market pricing that has widened materially since July's 9–3 vote to hold.

President Trump verbally pledged on September 13, 2026, to remove the 10% U.S. tariff on Irish whiskey, but as of September 14, no presidential proclamation, Federal Register notice, or USTR guidance had been issued to give the promise legal effect. The gap matters because a UK precedent shows the process requires formal USTR action, as demonstrated when Scotch whisky tariffs were eliminated only after an April 30 proclamation took effect in July. Until equivalent steps are taken for Irish whiskey, the current 10% tariff rate remains in force.