Fed Expected to Raise Rates 25 Basis Points for First Time Since July 2023
Markets priced a 92.5% probability of a quarter-point federal-funds rate increase at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, which would lift the target range to 3.75%–4.00% after five consecutive holds. The decision matters differently depending on what you owe or save: HELOCs and variable-rate credit cards adjust more directly to Fed moves, while 30-year fixed mortgages track the 10-year Treasury and existing fixed-rate auto loans are unaffected. A new Summary of Economic Projections releases alongside the decision, showing where each participant sees rates heading, though those dots represent individual judgments rather than committee commitments.