Economy

The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously on September 16 to raise the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points, the first increase in over two years, citing elevated inflation and solid economic activity. Updated projections show 16 of 18 policymakers placed their year-end rate assessments above the new 3.875 percent midpoint, though these reflect views on appropriate policy rather than commitments to further action. Chair Kevin Warsh set a specific condition for future moves: clear and sufficiently rapid progress toward the 2 percent inflation target, a standard he said had not yet been met.

The Bank of England's September 2026 rate decision has not yet been published, leaving Bank Rate at 3.75% as the last confirmed figure from a 6-3 July hold vote. August CPI rose to 3.1%, up from 2.9% in July, while unemployment reached 4.9% and regular earnings grew 3.5%, giving the MPC mixed signals ahead of the announcement. Three MPC members voted to raise rates in July, making the September outcome genuinely uncertain and the vote split worth watching when the 12pm release lands.

The Census Bureau releases its August 2026 New Residential Construction report today at 8:30 a.m. EDT, one day after the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3¾%–4%, making the August figures the last construction snapshot unaffected by that policy shift. The most recent available data, from July, showed housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,239,000, down 12.4% from June and 13.5% from a year earlier, while permits rose 5.0% from June to 1,443,000. August totals, regional breakdowns, and any July revisions were not publicly available before today's scheduled release.

The FOMC unanimously raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4% on September 16 and revised its median 2026 unemployment forecast down to 4.1% from 4.3%. The most recent available jobless claims data, from the September 10 DOL release, showed initial claims at 206,000 and an insured unemployment rate of 1.2%, both figures predating the rate decision. The September 17 claims report had not yet been published at the time of research, leaving the first post-hike labor-market reading unconfirmed.

The Philadelphia Fed's September 2026 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey releases today at 8:30 a.m. EDT, with no data available before publication. The August baseline showed headline activity at 47.4, its highest since April 2021, while employment reached a four-year high and six-month future activity hit its strongest reading since August 1983. The September figures will be the first regional manufacturing read on orders, employment, and price pressure since the FOMC raised its 2026 PCE inflation projection to 3.7% and lifted the federal-funds rate to a 3.75–4% target range.