Economy

The BEA and Census Bureau will release July 2026 U.S. international trade data at 8:30 a.m. EDT on September 3, with June's $73.3 billion goods-and-services deficit serving as the baseline for comparison. June imports totaled $388.0 billion and exports $314.7 billion, with Vietnam and Mexico posting record import figures of $25.2 billion and $55.3 billion respectively. July figures covering the headline balance, partner-level deficits, and end-use breakdowns were not yet published as of early morning on release day.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its revised second-quarter 2026 Productivity and Costs report at 8:30 a.m. ET on September 3, 2026, with the preliminary August 6 print showing nonfarm business labor productivity at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of +1.4%. Revised figures for productivity, output, hours worked, hourly compensation, and unit labor costs across nonfarm business, business, and manufacturing sectors were not yet public at the pre-release check. The preliminary data serve as the baseline for comparison once the revision is published, but no revised-versus-preliminary changes can be reported until the official release.

The DOL weekly unemployment claims report for the week ending August 29 was not yet published at the 4:05 a.m. research cutoff and is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on September 3. The most recent completed data, from the August 27 release, showed seasonally adjusted initial claims of 203,000 for the week ending August 22, with insured unemployment at 1,778,000. Those figures serve as the baseline ahead of Friday's August Employment Situation report, which will include July's revised nonfarm payroll figure of -23,000 as context.

The ISM will publish its August Services PMI at 10:00 a.m. Eastern today, September 3, 2026, giving the first look at whether the services sector's 25-month expansion streak continued. July's report showed a headline reading of 54.1 percent alongside a notable split: strong Business Activity at 59.1 percent and New Orders at 57.2 percent, but an Employment Index that slipped back into contraction at 47.4 percent. The Prices Index held at an elevated 70.3 percent, marking the fourth time above 70 percent in five months, making today's update particularly relevant for tracking labor and cost trends.

The Dallas Fed's Weekly Economic Index registered 2.85 percent for the week ended August 22, up 0.26 percentage points from the prior week, with its 13-week moving average at 2.79 percent against 2.10 percent four-quarter GDP growth through Q2 2026. The next WEI reading is scheduled for September 3 at 11:30 a.m. ET, one day before the Employment Situation report. Separately, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model placed Q3 2026 real GDP growth at 4.8 percent annualized as of September 1, driven largely by a surge in its gross private domestic investment nowcast from 14.5 to 21.8 percent.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases August employment data on September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET, following a July report that showed nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 against expectations of an 83,000 gain, while prior months were revised down a combined 103,000. The August figures will cover unemployment, wages, hours, and further revisions, giving Federal Reserve policymakers their last major labor market reading before the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. The Fed held its target rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in July, with members noting downside employment risks and upside inflation risks, and has said future decisions depend on incoming data.

The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index dropped to 0.79 in July from a revised 1.19 in June, according to secondary source MTS Insights, continuing a decline from May's upwardly revised 1.81. The index, which combines over 27 transportation and manufacturing variables normalized around a historical average of zero, had remained elevated partly due to disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz. The next official release on September 4, 2026, at 10 a.m. ET will provide the August headline figure, any revision to July, and component-level detail on whether the easing continued.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast's most recent published estimate, dated August 28, put 2026 third-quarter GDP growth at 2.2 percent, with an 80 percent probability interval spanning 0.0 to 4.5 percent. A scheduled update at 12:45 p.m. Eastern on Friday, September 4 will follow the August Employment Situation report by several hours, giving the model an opportunity to absorb new payroll data, which is a documented input. Hours worked from that same report are not listed as a separate model input in the NY Fed's published technical documentation, so the direction and size of any Friday revision cannot be established in advance.