Economy

Thailand's headline inflation rose to 2.53% year on year in August 2026, exceeding the Bloomberg survey median of 2.43% and climbing from July's 1.95%, driven primarily by higher fuel prices, food costs, and public transport fares. Despite the uptick, the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee unanimously held its policy rate at 1.00% for a third consecutive meeting, with the governor citing weak and uneven growth as the primary economic concern rather than price pressures. Core inflation also edged up to 1.44%, and the central bank projects headline inflation will continue rising into early 2027 due to El Niño effects before easing amid subdued domestic demand.

Japan's Cabinet Office reported Q2 2026 real GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.1% annualized, well below the Reuters poll median of 2.0% annualized, with flat private consumption and a 1.2% drop in private non-residential investment among the drags. A second preliminary estimate is due September 8, arriving just before the Bank of Japan's September 17–18 Monetary Policy Meeting, where board members are already divided on whether to hold or continue raising rates. The revised figure will give policymakers one more data point as they weigh underlying inflation near 2% against softer-than-expected economic output.

China's General Administration of Customs has not published August trade figures, and the official release timetable attachment could not be independently verified. What is confirmed: through July, China's goods trade totaled 30.13 trillion yuan, up 17.3% year on year, with exports rising 14% and July's monthly surplus reaching $112.5 billion. The widely cited $120.1 billion August surplus consensus could not be confirmed from available sources, making the Tuesday release the first opportunity to assess whether July's export momentum and tariff front-loading effects carried into August.

Japan's Ministry of Finance will publish its July 2026 balance-of-payments data on September 8, but as of September 7 the widely cited ¥2.87 trillion surplus estimate could not be confirmed from any official or wire source. Customs data already show July exports of ¥11.5 trillion and imports of ¥12.1 trillion, leaving a merchandise deficit of ¥638 billion, which means any large surplus would depend heavily on primary-income flows rather than trade. Historical July figures from 2024 and 2025 both showed surpluses above ¥2.5 trillion, driven by investment income, giving context for what Tuesday's official release may confirm.

The Central Bank of Egypt kept its overnight deposit rate at 19% and lending rate at 20% on August 20, 2026, extending an unchanged policy stance that follows 825 basis points of cuts between April 2025 and February 2026. Urban headline inflation rose to 14.9% in July and is projected to climb further through Q3 2026 before declining from Q1 2027, with the CBE targeting 7% plus or minus 2 percentage points by the second half of 2027. The bank also modestly raised its real GDP growth forecasts to 5% for fiscal 2025/26 and 4.9% for fiscal 2026/27, each up 0.1 percentage points from prior estimates.