GeoPolitics

A new IISS study finds that Russian-linked shadow fleet vessels almost certainly served as mobile launch platforms for drones that systematically surveilled nuclear weapons storage sites, submarine bases, and US forward-deployed airbases across 13 European countries over 19 months. The campaign's real intelligence value wasn't imagery but provocation: recording which radars activated, which jets scrambled, and which command nodes opened communications. Drone overflights virtually ceased once suspect vessels were detained, a correlation that has already forced the UK to legislate shoot-down powers, pushed NATO toward Article 4 consultations, and accelerated a EU drone defense initiative with a 2027 target date.

Russia's central bank has set a legally binding September 1, 2026 mass launch for the digital ruble, with 17 major banks mandated to comply first, yet Sberbank's CEO publicly sees no advantage over existing cashless payments and polling shows 40-51 percent of Russians unwilling to use it. The most concrete near-term value is in government salary payments and smart contracts, not retail adoption, with the Bank of Russia already granting deferments to banks that won't be ready in time. A separate experiment moving digital wallets onto commercial bank balance sheets won't arrive until 2029, meaning the launch is better understood as a regulatory milestone than a shift in everyday payment behavior.