Geopolitics

Niger's ruling junta retook Air Base 101 in Niamey on August 29-30, 2026 after dissident soldiers occupied three barracks and fired on sensitive sites in the capital, with AFP citing diplomatic and security sources reporting Russian forces assisted in the recapture. Several dozen military personnel, described by RFI as largely special forces members, were arrested, and no transfer of power occurred. Key details remain unconfirmed, including the mutineers' leadership and demands, a full casualty count, and whether Diori Hamani International Airport has resumed civilian operations.

Anonymous German and EU officials indicate Chancellor Merz is preparing to formally blame Russia for the August 4 explosive-drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport and announce extensive sanctions, with a possible announcement timed to the September 1–2 EU foreign ministers' meeting. No formal attribution, named targets, or sanctions instrument has been published, and key technical details — including the number of drones used and the explosive chemistry — remain unconfirmed by official German sources. The piece maps precisely what authorities have established, what remains media-reported and unresolved, and what legal framework any EU sanctions would operate under.

Putin and Erdoğan are confirmed to meet at the SCO summit in Bishkek on September 1, with Ukraine, Black Sea shipping security, and bilateral trade on the agenda, but no negotiating framework or concrete proposal has been accepted by either side ahead of the meeting. Türkiye's call for a moratorium on attacks against commercial vessels was rejected by Russia as a half-measure, the Black Sea Grain Initiative remains expired with no replacement, and Türkiye's imports from Russia fell 40.5% year-on-year in July 2026 to $2.1 billion. The meeting's significance lies in the open questions it carries rather than any arrangement already in place.

Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung attended the 55th Pacific Islands Forum in Palau as a development partner, resuming PIF-adjacent engagement after all external partners were excluded from the 2024 meeting. The U.S. State Department explicitly backed Taiwan's continued participation, calling it a reliable democratic partner, while China urged the PIF Secretariat to uphold the one-China principle. Taiwan has held development partner status with the PIF since 1993 and retains diplomatic ties with three of its 18 member states.