Economy

The July Empire State Manufacturing Survey releases July 15 against a June baseline where the prices-paid index held at 61.0 and the headline general business conditions index fell 14 points from May's four-year high to 5.7. The prices-paid and new-orders sub-indices will draw the most scrutiny, as a sustained prices-paid reading near 60 would indicate producer input costs remain elevated despite June's headline CPI falling 0.4 percent month-over-month. The release is one of three regional manufacturing surveys the FOMC will review before its July 28-29 rate decision, where the median projection currently shows no cut in 2026.

In speeches delivered within 36 hours before the FOMC blackout period began July 18, Governors Waller, Barr, and Bowman each addressed AI through a distinct lens: Waller as a potential inflation input via semiconductor demand, Barr as a distributional question dependent on education and competition policy outside the Fed's remit, and Bowman as a supervisory calibration problem for community banks. The three speeches reveal an institution aligned on AI's productive potential but fragmented on whether monetary policy, structural commentary, or bank supervision is the appropriate instrument to shape its consequences.