Intelligence Brief

U.S. District Judge Kathleen M. Williams issued a 56-page order on July 13, 2026, finding that the Trump v. IRS lawsuit was filed for an improper purpose, in bad faith, and as a collusive arrangement between nominal adversaries, and that the resulting Anti-Weaponization Fund constituted a slush fund conferring audit immunity on Trump and his family entities without statutory authority. The order referred Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche to the New York State Bar Association, Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward Jr. to the D.C. Bar, private counsel Alejandro Brito to the Florida Bar, and barred pro hac vice counsel Daniel Z. Epstein from the Southern District of Florida for one year. The audit-immunity component of the settlement remains in legal limbo, as the order does not formally vacate that provision, and the government has until mid-August 2026 to file a notice of appeal.

IBM reported preliminary Q2 2026 revenue of $17.2 billion, missing analyst consensus of $17.86 billion, driven by a steeper-than-expected mainframe decline, stalled large deals, and what CEO Arvind Krishna described as insufficient internal execution speed. The resulting single-day share decline of approximately 25% was the largest in IBM's recorded trading history, surpassing the company's drop during the October 1987 market crash. IBM did not issue revised full-year guidance in the preannouncement, deferring that update to a scheduled conference call on July 22, 2026.

The July Empire State Manufacturing Survey releases July 15 against a June baseline where the prices-paid index held at 61.0 and the headline general business conditions index fell 14 points from May's four-year high to 5.7. The prices-paid and new-orders sub-indices will draw the most scrutiny, as a sustained prices-paid reading near 60 would indicate producer input costs remain elevated despite June's headline CPI falling 0.4 percent month-over-month. The release is one of three regional manufacturing surveys the FOMC will review before its July 28-29 rate decision, where the median projection currently shows no cut in 2026.

TSMC's June 2026 revenue of NT$442.68 billion, up 67.9% year-on-year, pushed its second-quarter total to roughly US$39.6 billion, exceeding the high end of the company's own guidance range of US$39–40.2 billion. The outperformance is driven by sold-out capacity at its 3-nanometer node and accelerating demand for CoWoS advanced packaging used in AI accelerators from Nvidia and AMD. Analysts expect Q2 net profit of approximately US$19.65 billion, which would mark TSMC's fifth consecutive quarter of record earnings when results are released July 16, 2026.

The Writers Guild of America filed a federal antitrust complaint on July 14, 2026, arguing that combining two of the five major buyers of WGA-covered writing would suppress screenwriter wages and reduce employment, with post-merger market concentration exceeding the 2023 Merger Guidelines' presumptively anticompetitive thresholds in all three defined labor markets. The suit is the first time the WGA has acted as a direct plaintiff in a federal merger challenge, and it proceeds on a distinct legal theory from the parallel twelve-state attorney general action filed one day earlier in the same court. Because the DOJ closed its investigation without examining labor-market effects, private litigants now represent the primary legal obstacle to a deal expected to close by late August or early September 2026.

On July 14, 2026, the United States conducted a new wave of Operation Epic Fury airstrikes against Iranian military targets and reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports, ending a ceasefire that had been in place since June 18. Iran retaliated by striking U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan and attacking at least three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, killing one crew member and injuring eight. A proposed 20 percent U.S. transit fee for the Strait of Hormuz was announced and then abandoned within 24 hours after the IMO declared it had no legal basis, and no confirmed diplomatic channel exists as of July 15.

China's June 2026 export growth of 27 percent year-on-year beat the Reuters consensus of 18.2 percent by nearly nine percentage points, driven by record integrated-circuit volumes and strong EV and battery shipments, pushing the monthly trade surplus to approximately $125.6 billion. The data were released alongside a Q2 GDP print of 4.3 percent, below the 4.5 percent consensus and the weakest non-rebound quarter since late 2022, alongside the first-ever contraction in first-half fixed-asset investment. Analysts are divided on how much of the export surge reflects structural demand for AI compute hardware versus front-loading ahead of the July 24 expiration of a 10 percent baseline U.S. tariff, with customs officials emphasizing structural factors and external economists flagging both.

The July 10 Freddie Mac survey recorded the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.49%, up six basis points from the prior week, but the reading predates a significant market event: the June CPI report released July 14 showed the largest monthly headline decline since April 2020, dropping 0.4% and pulling the year-over-year rate to 3.5% from 4.2%. That data moved Treasury yields down roughly six basis points and lender-rate indexes down about five, making the July 17 PMMS the first reading to reflect post-CPI conditions, with analysts projecting a modest dip to the 6.44%–6.46% range.

The American League held the National League to three hits and struck out 15 batters in the 2026 MLB All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park, recording only the 10th shutout in the event's history. Cody Bellinger drove in two runs with a first-inning single and was named MVP, becoming the fourth Yankee to win the Ted Williams Award. The AL has now won 23 of the last 29 All-Star Games and leads the all-time series 48-45-2.