Personal Finance

The MBA Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 3, 2026 recorded a 2.2 percent seasonally adjusted drop in the Market Composite Index, with the Refinance Index down 4 percent and the refinance share slipping to 40.6 percent of total applications. Rates for the following survey week rose further, with Freddie Mac reporting the 30-year fixed at 6.49 percent and daily averages from Mortgage News Daily exceeding 6.70 percent, the highest since late July 2025. The July 15 release covering the week ending July 10 will be the last major housing-demand data point before the Federal Reserve's July 28–29 FOMC meeting.

Morgan Stanley reports Q2 2026 earnings on July 15 against a demanding baseline: Q1 2026 set all-time records for firmwide revenue at $20.6 billion, wealth net new assets at $118 billion, and a 30.4% pre-tax margin. Analysts consensus projects Q2 revenue near $19.67 billion and EPS of $2.89, both representing double-digit year-over-year growth but a sequential step-down from Q1. The key questions are whether record wealth inflows represent a new baseline or a peak, and how much advisory fee compression — with 83% of advisors expected to charge below 1% on accounts over $5 million — is eroding the fee yield on $2.79 trillion in fee-based assets.

The July 10 Freddie Mac survey recorded the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.49%, up six basis points from the prior week, but the reading predates a significant market event: the June CPI report released July 14 showed the largest monthly headline decline since April 2020, dropping 0.4% and pulling the year-over-year rate to 3.5% from 4.2%. That data moved Treasury yields down roughly six basis points and lender-rate indexes down about five, making the July 17 PMMS the first reading to reflect post-CPI conditions, with analysts projecting a modest dip to the 6.44%–6.46% range.